Next pope should be able to nudge the church back to the ideological center

On Easter Monday, I was out drinking with friends when one of us yelled on top of his voice that the next pope would come from Africa.

Uninterested in religious debates, I was fascinated by the thought of having an African at the helm of the Catholic hierarchy. Drunk as he was, he asserted a dream in that direction had struck him.

I could be wrong but this is what I call a bad dream or wishful thinking disguised as a dream. A prophecy by Michel de Nostredame, better known as Nostradamus, in the year 1555 rightly predicted that 2025 would be one of wonders, including the death of a top religious leader whose demise would pave way for more scary events.

He stated, Through the death of a very old pontiff, a Roman of good age will be elected, of him it will be said that he weakens his seat, but long will he sit and in mordant activity.” Naysayers have watered down this prediction but being superstitious is not after all a bad thing especially when it comes from a man who has rightly predicated past events.

Similarly, a separate 900-year-old text, known as the Prophecy of the Popes and attributed to Saint Malachi, predicted a final pope called Peter the Roman who would feed his flock amid many tribulations.

Now that Pope Francis is dead, speculators believe the next pontiff could fulfill that prophecy. Coincidentally, Pope Francis was announced dead on Esther Monday at the age of 88, just a day after celebrating Easter with a surprise appearance at St Peter’s square where he was visibly seen bidding farewell to the congregation.

In a surprise turn of events, Pope Francis, unlike his predecessors in title, is said to have left a very simple Will and Testament in which he expressed his preference with regard to plans for his burial. In that document, whose details are now in the public domain, Francis requested that his tomb be prepared in the niche of the side nave between the Pauline Chapel (Chapel of the Salus Populi Romani) and the Sforza Chapel of the Papal Basilica.

He followed this will with a directive that his tomb must be in the earth; simple, without particular decoration with only the name Franciscus inscribed on it in wait for the day of resurrection in the “Papal Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore” which is an Italian word translated to mean “major” or “greater.”

Marian shrine. Unlike other religious settings, the Catholic Church is a very organized group with elaborate procedures of dealing with death of a reigning pope. When a pope dies, the first person to be notified is the reigning camerlengo.

In the Roman Catholic Church, a camerlengo is a cardinal who acts as the pope’s financial secretary and treasurer, and also oversees the Vatican’s finances during a papal vacancy. Upon the death or resignation of a pope, the camerlengo becomes the interim administrative head of the Church, ensuring the smooth functioning of the Vatican until a new pope is elected through a secretive but highly ritualized process called a conclave, held in Vatican City’s Sistine Chapel.

I am obviously not an authority on religious matters but I know for a fact that there is a thin line between the church and politics, leave alone unwritten social and economic interests. I am also aware that there is an intercontinental array of possible successors to Pope Francis but I don’t think the dice favours Africa for many reasons.

First of all, there are few blacks who form the College of Cardinals. Secondly, these blacks have always failed to build consensus due to our inherent disunity. On the face of it, the slot appears open for every qualified contender from across Asia, Africa, North America and Europe but there are underlying dynamics that have always and will continue to deny Africa a chance of ascending to the papacy.

Over to you my friend Otuko: a dream of having an African pope was influenced by your Sunday hangover. It is a dream so detached from the realities on the ground. In such a religious election, the Holy Spirit is supposed to take charge but, humanly speaking, racial segregation is inbuilt in the DNA of many white skins; call it superiority complex which plays a pivotal role in determining the winner, especially if an African is one of the candidates.

The church is so careful with such an election and cannot allow certain historical mistakes to repeat. In 1378, the Roman Catholic Church once had three popes at the same time after the reigning pope died. Urban VI from Naples was enthroned as pope, which angered those who felt entitled.

A Roman mob marched in protests and surrounded the cardinals, demanding for an Italian pope, which enraged the elected pope. He is said to have insulted and punished some cardinals, accusing them of treason. The cardinals backtracked and claimed that the election of Urban VI was invalid and elected Clement VII in Avignon.

Europeans countries were deeply divided on whom to pay allegiance to. To fix the problem, the Council of Constance decided to elect a third pope Alexander IV but the other two refused to step down. In 1414, the same council took a decision to restore order, which saw one of the three resigning, the other was forced out and the last one left guessing before electing Pope Martin IV.

However, the image of the church had been shattered to the brim and since then, the procedures were tightened and are treated as a delicate matter. So, whoever will be elected, the next pope will be a man of proven character, a peacemaker and should be ready to nudge the church back to the ideological center where it feels at peace with its followers.

Recall Pope Francis’ 12-year reign had a huge impact on the 1.4 billion-plus Catholics worldwide with some unverified dents associated with his open support for LGBTQI+ and suppression of the traditional Latin Mass.

These allegations are said to have rattled the conservatives in the church, and could be a determining factor on who becomes the next pope. I am neither a foreteller nor a prophet.

But one thing for sure is that the balance of convenience lies in favour of Pietro Parolin, a 70-year-old Italian cardinal bishop who has been serving as the Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, playing a key role in diplomatic affairs, including delicate negotiations with China and governments in the Middle East.

He is seen as a potential replacement having been a confidant of Pope Francis. Please note that the name Pietro is the same as Peter. Pietro Parolin has been regarded as a reliable and trusted papal representative by secular diplomats. In 2018, he was the driving force behind a controversial agreement with the Chinese government on the appointment of bishops which got him criticized by some as a sellout to the communist regime.

Parolin’s critics see him as a modernist and a pragmatist who places ideology and diplomatic solutions above hard truths of the faith. To his supporters, he is a courageous idealist and avid proponent of peace and, therefore, the best choice.

The math in this equation is that of the 138 cardinals eligible to vote in the conclave, a total of 108 were appointed by Pope Francis during his tenure. What if Pietro Parolin had a hand in the strategic appointments of these 108 cardinals? This group is notably more diverse than previous electorates.

It does not matter that there is a higher representation from Asia, Africa and Latin America. I believe Pope Francis’s intention was to mirror the church’s global reach and for inclusivity. It has been observed that the age limit for a papal contender is 80 years.

Other potential candidates in the race are cardinals Peter Erdo, Robert Prevost, Mario Grech, Matteo Zupim, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Robert Sarah, Fridolin Ambongo, Kevin Farrell, Luis Tagle, Peter Turkson from Ghana and Fridolin Ambongo from Congo.

Now from April 21, 2025 when Pope Francis died, a conclave has about 17 days left to make a decision. I hate to say this but the election of the new pope will mark a fresh era for weeping and gnashing of teeth across Europe and the victims will be Africa and Asia.

wadroger@yahoo.com

The writer is a commentator on political, legal and social issues

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