Museveni’s fatigue reshapes campaigns – The Observer

The music still blares, the banners still wave, but something feels different this time.

In town after town, Uganda’s 2026 presidential campaign is unfolding not with the thunder of rallies or the chaos of police crackdowns, but with an uneasy calm. President Yoweri Museveni, once the tireless campaigner who crisscrossed the country for weeks on end, now moves slowly through shorter appearances, his speeches brief, his energy visibly waning.

The 81-year-old leader who once warned that “after 75, the vigour is not as much,” seems to be living out his own prophecy. Around him, the NRM’s new generation of power brokers, led by Speaker Anita Among and Secretary-General Richard Todwong, has taken charge, crisscrossing the country in his name.

Meanwhile, opposition leader Bobi Wine campaigns under unprecedented calm: no teargas, no mass arrests, no violent dispersals. The silence, though, is not accidental.

Sources inside the ruling party and security agencies say this peace is by design, a carefully managed script intended to protect an aging president, project stability abroad, and deny the opposition the chaos that once fueled its momentum.

For the first time in decades, Uganda is witnessing an election season without spectacle or fear. Yet beneath the calm lies an uneasy question: is this the dawn of a more peaceful democracy, or the quiet choreography of control?

For the first time in four decades of relentless political campaigns, the country’s longest-serving leader is moving with noticeable fatigue. At 81, Museveni is well past the age limit he once publicly declared should mark the end of “active leadership.”

In a 2012 interview, he told NTV’s Patrick Kamara, “After 75, the vigour is not as much. I think if you want very active leaders, you should have those below 75.” Yet, here he is, still on the ballot, still in control, but noticeably different.

A CAMPAIGN WITHOUT FIRE

This election season feels unlike any Uganda has seen. Officially launched on September 29, the 2026 presidential campaign has unfolded quietly. Gone are the chaotic motorcades, the volleys of teargas, and the police crackdowns that once defined Uganda’s election cycles.

Museveni has campaigned across parts of Buganda, Lango, Acholi, and West Nile, but insiders say his stamina has faded.

“There was a meeting with social media influencers,” one person on his campaign team told us.

“Less than thirty minutes in, he said he was tired and needed to rest. He just told us to finish the meeting.”

In previous elections, Museveni’s rallies were marathons, hours of speeches punctuated by war stories, songs, and a show of vitality that rallied the faithful. This time, much of that vigor is gone, replaced by delegation.

Senior members of the National Resistance Movement (NRM), notably Speaker Anita Among, Secretary-General Richard Todwong, and regional deputies, are now leading parallel campaigns in different parts of the country.

In Busoga, Teso, and West Nile, Among’s convoys draw the kind of crowds once reserved for the president himself.

“Of course, some of them want to benefit from campaign funds,” one NRM insider admitted, “but mostly, they’re filling the gap left by Museveni’s slowed pace.”

According to multiple political and security sources, this election season was deliberately designed to be quiet, by Museveni himself.

“This is a controlled campaign,” one senior source said. “He can’t afford a fully blown, high-energy campaign anymore. His people don’t want to stress him.”

That “control” extends to the opposition. Security agencies have been instructed to avoid the violent confrontations that marred the 2021 elections, when police and military crackdowns on opposition rallies left scores dead and hundreds injured.

“It was agreed not to use brutality,” one security official said. “You don’t want to make people angry. When opposition rallies are blocked, it’s done quietly, no teargas, no shootings. It’s a plan being implemented.”

The strategy marks a striking departure from past elections, where state repression often defined the political atmosphere. Ironically, this relative calm has left the campaigns feeling subdued, even dull.

For opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, better known as Bobi Wine, the shift is both a relief and a challenge.

“So far, the campaigns have been peaceful,” he told supporters in Busia last week. “We haven’t faced major challenges—except for an incident in Busunju, where police knocked down some of our supporters.”

He acknowledged that the violence of previous elections is gone, but subtle restrictions remain. “We haven’t been attacked like before,” he said, “but they still block access to key routes and trading centers.”

Still, Bobi Wine has urged his supporters to maintain discipline. “We promised to be peaceful and law-abiding, and we’re showing the country the kind of leadership we yearn for.”

Yet the opposition faces a paradox. In Uganda, state brutality has historically energized anti-government sentiment. Without that visible repression, enthusiasm has cooled among some young voters. Democratic Party leader Norbert Mao has noticed the difference.

“Some youth say these campaigns are boring, no teargas, no arrests,” he said. “But that shouldn’t be your measure of excitement. If chaos was your campaign strategy, you need to rethink.”

Mao argued that this calm should force opposition leaders to focus on substance, not spectacle.

“The era of using arrests and teargas as a political talking point is over,” he said.

A NEW NORMAL OR POLITICAL THEATER?

The Electoral Commission has welcomed the change. Spokesperson Julius Mucunguzi praised the “peaceful and civil” atmosphere, saying it reflects the spirit envisioned by the framers of the 1995 Constitution.

“We are pleased to see that the call for peaceful conduct appears to be taking root,” he said. “This is exactly what an election should look like.”

But beneath that calm lies unease. Analysts see this managed serenity as a calculated move by a tired president to maintain control while projecting normalcy to the international community.

“Museveni understands optics,” said a Kampala-based political analyst. “After years of global criticism over human rights abuses, he wants to show the world a peaceful election, without losing control of the outcome.”

The choreography is careful: enough access for opposition rallies to appear democratic, enough restrictions to keep momentum contained. In many ways, Uganda’s 2026 election campaign is less about competition and more about endurance, both for the opposition and for Museveni himself.

His grip on power remains firm, but his physical presence, the once tireless general who crisscrossed the country in military fatigues, is fading. In his place stands a quieter figure, delegating power to a network of loyal surrogates who are already testing their own political futures.

That shift may mark the beginning of a new political era, one where Museveni’s influence endures not through energy, but through orchestration. Uganda’s streets are calm. The rallies are orderly.

But beneath the silence lies a profound question about the country’s political soul: When the noise stops, what remains of democracy built on struggle, defiance, and the illusion of competition?

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