Next bomb alert: Will Ugandans believe it?

For years, Ugandans have lived with the anxiety of sudden terror alerts, bomb scares in crowded markets, whispered warnings at churches, and dramatic reports of suicide bombers being intercepted just in time.

Each episode played on the country’s deepest fears, evoking memories of real attacks carried out by insurgents. But now, those same scares are under a harsh light of suspicion, and the fallout has ensnared one of the country’s most senior intelligence officers.

On Friday, Maj Gen James Birungi, former head of the Chieftancy of Military Intelligence (CMI), now renamed Defence Intelligence and Security (DIS), was dramatically arrested. He is being held at Makindye Military Police barracks, the most high-profile figure yet in a widening probe that has already netted 12 other suspects, including senior officers once tasked with counter-terrorism.

The allegations are extraordinary: that some of the very men charged with keeping Uganda safe may have staged or exaggerated terror incidents, linking them to the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) to justify operations and maintain influence.

THE ARREST THAT SHOOK THE BARRACKS

Birungi’s arrest followed weeks of quiet but intense investigation ordered by the Chief of Defence Forces, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba. The probe began with the detention of Col Peter Ahimbisibwe, then CMI’s counterterrorism director, and Lt Col Ephraim Byaruhanga, who oversaw Special Operations.

As interrogations deepened, their accounts repeatedly pointed back to their former boss. Sources close to the investigation say both men implicated Birungi in authorizing suspicious operations, including those in which women alleged to be suicide bombers were killed in Munyonyo and Kaleerwe last year.

Operatives had insisted these women were ADF-linked attackers. But investigators in the Mountain Division, led at the time by Maj Gen Richard Otto, found no evidence of ADF infiltration near the border to match those claims. When Otto’s officers reviewed surveillance logs and intelligence streams, the gaps became glaring.

“There was no ADF movement, no signals,” one officer familiar with the review said. “So where did the suicide bombers come from?”

CRACKS IN THE NARRATIVE

The June 3rd Martyrs Day scare was the first domino. A woman was reportedly killed near Munyonyo Catholic Shrine in what was described as a foiled attack. Weeks later, another woman was gunned down in Kaleerwe market, her supposed device detonated in front of crowds.

Each incident was followed by swift claims from CMI operatives tying the attackers to the ADF. But when investigators cross-checked, nothing added up. Five junior soldiers linked to those operations were quietly arrested. Their testimonies, according to sources, traced orders back through their commanders to Birungi himself.

The revelations unsettled not just the barracks but also State House. For years, bomb scares had justified crackdowns, troop deployments, and shifts in intelligence budgets. If these incidents were indeed fabricated or manipulated, they undermined both public trust and the state’s counterterrorism credibility.

By early this year, Birungi had already been reassigned from DIS to the Mountain Division in Fort Portal, tasked with overseeing Operation Shujaa against the ADF in Congo. At the time, it seemed like a routine shuffle.

In hindsight, sources now suggest it was a tactical move by Muhoozi, both to test new leadership in CMI and to quietly clear the way for investigators. Not long after, Birungi was appointed Defence Attaché to Burundi, a post insiders now describe as “window dressing.”

On Thursday, August 28, he was summoned to Mbuya headquarters. By Friday, August 29, he had been disarmed, grilled for over seven hours, and driven under tight guard to Makindye. In an interview on September 1, Defence and UPDF spokesperson Maj Gen Felix Kulayigye said that Gen Birungi’s arrest was part of ongoing investigations into matters connected to his former department.

“He was arrested to assist with investigations. Based on the outcome, a decision will be made on whether to charge him in court or determine if he has a case to answer,” Maj Gen Kulayigye explained.

However, he noted that there is no set date for when Gen Birungi may be formally charged, citing the recent dissolution of the General Court Martial by the Supreme Court.

“Let me remind you that the Supreme Court dissolved the Court Martial. That decision has had significant effects; we are currently unable to administer justice within the institution. As they say, justice delayed is justice denied,” he said.

Kulayigye added that Gen Birungi and other officers awaiting trial will remain in limbo until the appropriate judicial body is reconstituted. He further clarified that although suspects can, in some cases, be tried in civilian courts, this only applies under specific conditions.

“These individuals can be tried in civilian courts if they have a case that falls under civilian jurisdiction,” he said.

“But that determination is made internally, within the ministry.”

THE LOOSE ENDS

The CDF probe team is now digging back through at least three years of terror scares. They are reviewing incidents such as the abandoned devices found at Pastor Robert Kayanja’s church, threats in Nateete, and other bombs discovered in Kampala neighbourhoods.

What investigators want to know is whether these were genuine threats foiled by vigilant intelligence work, or staged operations designed to justify the system itself. At least three supposed “cells” once linked to CMI operatives are now under fresh scrutiny.

The picture emerging is of a culture where blurred lines between counterterrorism and political theatre may have taken root, with junior soldiers ordered into operations whose legitimacy they never questioned.

LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE

Beyond the intrigue of generals and barracks politics lies a sobering question: what does this mean for ordinary Ugandans? Every bomb scare sparks panic. Markets empty. Churches delay services. Families keep children at home.

Over time, these alerts erode trust not only in the intelligence services but also in the government’s ability to tell truth from manipulation. If fabricated threats were used to inflate the menace of the ADF, the risk is twofold: genuine threats might be downplayed, and citizens may no longer believe warnings when real danger looms.

“You can only cry wolf so many times,” said a retired officer. “Eventually, the village stops listening.”

A GENERAL’S FALL AND A SYSTEM ON TRIAL

Maj Gen Birungi’s arrest is more than the downfall of one officer. It is a test of Uganda’s military justice system and its willingness to confront uncomfortable truths about how security has been managed.

The investigation could still widen. For now, it has revealed how ter- ror, real or manufactured, can be wielded as a powerful tool. And it has underscored a reality many Ugandans already knew in their bones: that in the shadowy world of intelligence, the line between protection and manipulation is often paper-thin.

As one Kampala lawyer watching the case put it: “This is not just about bombs. It’s about the credibility of the state itself.”