Uganda’s first oil production shifted again to 2026

Uganda has once again revised the timeline for the long-awaited first flow of oil from the Albertine Graben, now setting June 2026 as the new target.

This marks yet another shift in expectations for the oil and gas sector that has seen multiple delays over the past two decades. Last year, the government announced June 2025 target for the first oil.

The new projection was announced by Frank Mugisha, assistant commissioner at the ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, while representing minister Ruth Nankabirwa at the 3rd Annual Joint Civil Society Conference held recently in Kampala.

Mugisha said the sector is currently over 60 per cent ready for first oil, with major progress registered at key production sites. He said according to the ministry’s current assessments, the Kingfisher and Tilenga projects are at 60 per cent completion and that government is confident that first oil will be achieved by June 2026 without further extensions.

The Kingfisher project, located in Kikuube district, is being developed by the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), while the Tilenga project, spread across Buliisa and Nwoya districts, is operated by TotalEnergies.

By mid-March 2025, over 100 wells had already been drilled by the two companies, according to the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU).

Long-awaited dream

Uganda discovered commercial oil reserves in the Albertine Graben nearly two decades ago. However, progress has been repeatedly stalled by logistical, financial, legal, and infrastructure-related hurdles, including delays in constructing a refinery and the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP).

Speaking at the same conference, Dr Arthur Bainomugisha, executive director of the Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE), voiced a sentiment shared by many Ugandans. He said people are now exhausted of the never-ending promise of first oil.

Mugisha attributed the delays to the time needed to develop the legal and regulatory framework required to govern the sector. He urged the public to remain confident.

“I want to reassure you and allay your fears that the first oil timeline set for June 2026 is final. There will be no further extension,” he emphasized.

Refinery still in limbo

Despite optimism around extraction, questions remain about whether Uganda will have the capacity to refine its crude oil by 2026. A source close to the project told The Observer that while extracting oil from the ground by mid-2026 is plausible, refining it for local and regional markets may not be immediately possible.

In March this year, the government signed an agreement with UAE-based Alpha MBM Investments LLC to construct a 60,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Hoima district. The project is expected to reduce Uganda’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

The deal grants Alpha MBM a 60 per cent stake, with the remaining 40 per cent held by the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC). However, construction has not yet started, and key agreements are still pending.

Until the refinery is operational, experts say that all crude oil is likely to be exported via the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. As Uganda races against time to meet the 2026 deadline, industry watchers remain cautiously optimistic. The oil sector holds promise for transforming the economy through job creation, infrastructure development, and increased government revenues. But much depends on timely project execution, transparency, and sound governance.